Sep 30, 2023
Bitcoin & Markets: Macro, money, geopolitics and news
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In this episode, I discuss collateral re-use and collateral multiplier. Similar to Fractional Reserve Banking, collateral rehypothication creates a hyper-elastic environment for US Treasuries, in good times. In bad times, this behemoth takes time to turn, but when it does collateral chains start to shorten and their is a move into the primary market for US Treasuries. This causes rates to at first look like a dollar shortage and turn into a collateral shortage, a certain period prior to credit events or recession. Right now, with rates still going up, we can know the shadow banking system has not turned yet, and we have at least 6-12 months left before a recession will hit. Enjoy.
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Full write up and charts
Link to paper mentioned: https://t.co/juZcU1hz4U
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